Oscarwatch.com on "Mystic River"

[MC]

Although it's still way too early to take any of this too seriously, Oscarwatch.com lists Mystic River as an "Oscar contender" in the following categories:

BEST PICTURE:
Lost in Translation
Master and Commander
Mystic River
Seabiscuit

BEST ACTOR
Jeff Bridges, Seabiscuit
Russell Crowe, Master and Commander
Johnny Depp, Pirates of the Caribbean
Peter Dinklage, The Station Agent
Paul Giamatti, American Splendor
Bill Murray, Lost in Translaion
Tobey Maguire, Seabiscuit
Sean Penn, Mystic River
Tim Robbins, Mystic River

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Kevin Bacon, Mystic River
Chris Cooper, Seabiscuit
William H. Macy, Seabiscuit

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Keisha Castle-Hughes, Whale Rider
Patricia Clarkson, The Station Agent
Marcia Gay Harden, Mystic River
Holly Hunter, Thirteen
Geraldine McEwan, The Magdalene Sisters
Laura Linney, Mystic River

BEST DIRECTOR
Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation
Clint Eastwood, Mystic River
Stephen Frears, Dirty Pretty Things
Gary Ross, Seabiscuit
Peter Weir, Master and Commander

SCREENPLAY - ADAPTED
Mystic River, Brian Helgeland
Whale Rider, Niki Caro
Seabiscuit, Gary Ross
American Splendor, Shari Springer Berman and Robert Pulcini

ART DIRECTION
Master and COmmander
Mystic River
Lost in Translation
Seabiscuit

EDITING
Master and Commander
Mystic River
Seabiscuit

The site also has a new article by the L.A. Times' Patrick Goldstein that actually lists Mystic River as the favorite in the best picture category:

"Mystic River" (6-1). Great performances. Great reviews. Great filmmaker. This is one film where what moved the critics — the film's almost Shakespearean sense of a tragic hero haunted by familial passions and ancient conflicts — will resonate with Academy members as well. If there were ever a sentimental Academy favorite, it would be director Clint Eastwood, who was already considered an éminence grise when his "Unforgiven" won best picture in 1992.

The next films listed by Goldstein are "Return of the King" (8-1), "Cold Mountain" (10-1), "Finding Nemo" (14-1), "The House of Sand and Fog" (15-1) and "Master and Commander" (16-1)

http://www.oscarwatch.com

[vik]

umm- only one stands out there

ok will have to see return of the king - oh just another lord of the rings - yawn

[MC]

On a related note, "Entertainment Weekly" has an article in its latest issue called, "Early Oscar Watch." It cites Return of the King as the favorite in the Best Picture race (as I think most sources would) but lists Mystic River as a contender in the following categories:

Best Picture
Best Director (Eastwood)
Best Actor (Penn)
Best Supporting Actor (both Robbins & Bacon)
Best Supporting Actress (both Harden & Linney)

[AKA23]

Thanks for that interesting information, MC. You might like to know though that these kinds of predictions are almost universal. It's a consensus among critics and predictors that this film will garner a fair amount of Oscar nominations, including Best Picture and Best Director. The acting nomination for Sean Penn seems to be the one that is most certain, but I'd be very surprised to not see Eastwood get a nomination, either in picture or as director or most probably, both. Unfortunately, I would doubt that he'll win, so Oscar 2003 will be a very disappointing year for us Eastwood fans, unless you're satisfied with an Oscar for Sean Penn, which seems the most assured, and nominations in the other big categories.

It seems to be more or less the consensus among critics that this is the year of the Lord of the Rings trilogy, that the Academy has nominated the films in the big categories twice, then completely ignored it, and it seems that this is the year that the Academy rewards the series with a slew of nominations and wins, especially in the larger categories. I'd predict, at this early stage, that LOTR will get the win for Best Picture, and Clint's film will be left in the cold.

[vik]

but we all know the story three times over - we have all seen the actors three times over - we have all seen the special effects three times over -  so whats new ??

if they didn't vote for them last time - what is different this time?

[AKA23]

I don't know what makes it different this time around, Vik. Most people seem to think that the third film is the best and that it would be outrageous to not reward such a remarkable achievement as the LOTR trilogy this year at the Oscars. It's been said that the Academy didn't want to reward the first and second picture, but was waiting for the third installment to really give their stamp of approval on the project. This, of course, remains to be seen, and we'll certainly find out next year,  but LOTR is a remarkable achievement, and I'd be very surprised if it got shut out again. Rather than reward the first film, then reward the second film, then reward the third film, the Academy, it's been speculated, wanted to do it all at once and wanted to wait until the conclusion of the trilogy to do so. So, that's the answer to your question of what's different this year, Vik.

[vik]

they should vote as they did before on the film individually each year - therefore i don't see it as a contender - it would have to be really remakable

[KC]

Please keep remarks on non-Eastwood films confined to the Off Topic forum, or, better yet, to other film discussion forums.

[william]

Hmmm, Lost in Transition had alot of good writings about it, but I would have to chose Mystic River. I cried after I saw Seabiscut, but I was having a bad day anyway . Thanks for posting this MC . I hope it was ok to comment on this KC

[MC]

Here's an excerpt from the EW article I referenced earlier (not yet available online as far as I can tell):

It's only November, but there's already a mountain of drama building about this year's Academy Awards. Unfortunately, it's all about those darned screener copies instead of potential nominees. Our annual Oscar Status report, highlighting the top candidates in the six main races, should put the focus back where it belongs.

BEST PICTURE
By all accounts the movie to beat will likely be the third and final installment of the Tolkien Trilogy, The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King, which has seen a nice boost thanks to the fantastic DVD sales of the first two films. But hot on its hobbit heels will be such epics as Cold Mountain, The Last Samurai, Master and Commander: Far Side of the World.

Meanwhile smaller films like Mystic River and Lost in Translation will try to build on positive reviews, while Big Fish is being touted as one of the holiday's most emotional films. The summer smash Seabiscuit will also try to gallop its way into the winners circle. Strong performances will bolster the dark dramas House of Sand and Fog, 21 Grams and The Missing, while lighter fare like Something's Gotta Give, Love Actually, Calandar Girls and Finding Nemo (a shoo-in for Best Animated Feature Film) will attempt to sway voter's hearts. A crowd-pleasing indie like Whale Rider or Bend It Like Beckham could make the final five. The holocaust themed drama The Statement will try to equal The Pianist's Oscar success.

BEST ACTOR
At the top of anyone's list must be Sean Penn who earned phenomenal reviews for Mystic River. But his biggest competition may be himself, since his work in this month's 21 grams is equally impressive.

Lost in Translation star Bill Murray might finally score his first ever nomination, House of Sand and Fog lead Ben Kingsley shoots for his first recognition in this category since winning in 1983 for Ghandi, and two-time supporting actor winner Michael Caine will try for two lead citations in a row (after last year's The Quiet American) with The Statement.

with his Talented Mr. Ripley director, Anthony Minghella, could earn Cold Mountain star Jude Law his second career nod, while Master and Commander's Russell Crowe and The Last Samurai's Tom Cruise are each aiming for their fourth nomination. Anthony Hopkins could make it five with The Human Stain, Robert Duvall seven for Open Range, while Jack Nicholson goes for number 13 with Something's Gotta Give. His Comedic competition will come from Jack Black in School of Rock, Johnny Depp in Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl, The Station Agent's droll Peter Drinklage, and Paul Giamatti in American Splendor.

Tommy Lee Jones (The Missing) and William H. Macy (The Cooler) could sneak in., while two films will each offer a pair of Best Actor candidates: The Return of the King featuring Viggo Mortensen and Elijah Wood, and Seabiscuit, starring Tobey Maguire and Jeff Bridges.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
This category seems to be dominated by pairs of players from the same movies: Tim Robbins and Kevin Bacon have won some of the highest praise of their careers as Mystic River's murder suspect and cop, respectively; Seabiscuit featured memorable turns from character actors Chris Cooper and William H. Macy; The Human Stain serves as a showcase for veteran Ed Harris and relative newcomer Wentworth Miller; and the third time might be the charm for The Lord of the Rings heroes Ian McKellen (nominated for Fellowship of the Ring) and Sean Austin.

Benicio Del Toro, who won in this category two years ago for Traffic, stands to return with 21 Grams, while beloved actor Albert Finney (Big Fish) could earn his sixth nod. Then there's a rash of esteemed actors shooting for first nominations: The Cooler's villain Alec Baldwin, Cold Mountain dad Brendon Gleeson, Shattered Glass editor Peter Sarsgaard, Master and Commander shipmate Paul Bettany, Sylvia husband Daniel Craig, and comedic faves Bill Nighy (Love Actually) and Eugene Levy (A Mighty Wind), as well as In America scene stealer Djimon Huonsou.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
After losing Best Actress two years in a row, perhaps Renee Zellweger will have better luck in this category for her role as Cold Mountain's intrepid farm girl, Ruby. Her Best Actress competition both times included Nicole Kidman, who might land in this race as well, thanks to her turn as a cleaning woman in The Human Stain.

Mystic River's Marcia Gay Harden and Laura Linney are both impressive in pivotal roles, while Big Fish co-star Jessica Lange tries for her first nomination since winning Best Actress in 1995 for Blue Sky. And Emma Thompson, who already owns Oscars in the lead-actress and adapted-screenplay categories, could win a spot here for her standout performance in the ensemble romance Love Actually, while Catherine O'Hara could win her first nomination for her scene stealing in A Mighty Wind.

Indie candidates include Lost In translation breakout Scarlett Johansson, Holly Hunter as Thirteen's frantic mom, American Splendor's nebbishy spouse Hope Davis, The Station Agent's reclusive artist Patricia Clarkson, The Magdalene Sister, villain Geraldine McEwan, whale Rider's teen hero Keisha Castle-Hughes, 21 Grams suffering wife Melissa Leo, and The Cooler temptress Maria Bello. Young Stars are coming from the majors, too: Natalie Portman (Cold Mountain's young widow, Sara); Kirsten Dunst, Julia Stiles, and Maggie Gyllenhaal (as Julia Roberts students in Mona Lisa Smile); and Matchstick Men ingénue Alison Lohman.

BEST DIRECTOR
Will Peter Jackson finally win an Oscar? He didn't even score a nomination for The Two Towers last year, but The Return of the King overseer could very well be rewarded this time around for all three of the Lord of the Rings films. His competition could include past winners: Cold Mountain's Anthony Minghella, Mystic River's Clint Eastwood and The Missing's Ron Howard, along with previous nominees Peter Weir (Master and Commander), Quentin Tarentino (Kill Bill Vol. 1, and Norman Jewison (The Statement). But some first-timers are bound to make the cut as well. Turning the quirkiness factor down a few notches might just pay off for Big Fish's Tim Burton, while Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu could be rewarded for his first English-language film, 21 Grams. The Last Samurai's Edward Zwick goes the epic route, Gary Ross tugs heartstrings with Saebiscuit, and acclaimed screenwriter Richard Curtis tries his hand with directing Love Actually. And Lost in Translation's Sofia Coppola or Something's Gotta Give's Nancy Meyers could become only the third women to earn a nomination in this category.

[Fingolfin]

How will "Mystic river" fare?

This could be Clint's biggest success,both critically and commercially.For it does surpass any of his previous directorial achievements(sorry KC,but even you should agree that "Unforgiven" is no longer his best work).So Iam wondering,how will the film fare with the academy awards?What do you think?I'd like to see it get more statues than "Unforgiven",yet I know that this prestigious award doesn't always do justice.Still,there is hope...

[KC]

Fingolfin, I merged your topic with this one that we already had started for Oscar speculation (and I edited it to make the topic title the same). Personally, I can't see the point of speculating about events that will occur several months from now over which we have no control.

This will certainly not be Eastwood's "biggest success ... commercially." According to Box Office Mojo, it hasn't even grossed $50 million yet.

Unforgiven remains Eastwood's best work as director.

[Fingolfin]

So,you still refuse to see the light eh KC?

[Brendan]

Unforgiven remains Eastwood's best work as director.

In your opinion of course. I'm sure others will disagree with you.

[the stranger]

Unforgiven remains Eastwood's best work as director.

If I may use your own words KC:

Where did you hear that story?

-Stranger-

[KC]

That's just the way it is.  

[vik]

i support kc as best work as director - but best film - umm outlaw josey wales but then it never got an oscar nomination for best film or director

[the stranger]

D'you know what KC, you're right, I see that now, that's just the way it is, and more importantly the way I think it'll always be.

It seems that you'll always be permitted to make thin comments such as that, and without question, pretty impressive.

[Brendan]

That's just the way it is.  

Exactly what I was talking about.

[Matt]

Are you all done fighting now?  Brendan, Stranger, are you done taking shots at KC now? Or will I open another thread to just find you both, and a few others, jumping on every word she says there too?

Thank you so much for completely destroying the harmony and sense of family we used to have on this board. For you to be able to make a member who used to love to be here every night, who posted twice more than anyone else on the board just want to walk away and never come back is quite an achievement.

You're completely ruining this board. I'm sure you'll continue to try to drag it even deeper into the ground than you already have by continuing to pick fights and ridicule each other.  And with all the fighting, even the last few members we have will stop coming by too... that's just great.

I used to love this board, but I actually hate it now. Amazing.